THIS year marks 10 years since the launch of a fracture calculator which can work out if you're at risk of breaking a bone through osteoporosis.
Launched by the Garvan Institute of Medical Research, the calculator is the first of its kind in the world and gets tens of thousands of visits every year.
It's been credited as transforming the clinical management of osteoporosis worldwide - and offering better outcomes for the 1.2 million Australians living with osteoporosis - and was developed by Professor Tuan Nguyen and Dr Nguyen Nguyen.
The online calculator for GPs and health professionals is a result of decades of research from the Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study at the Institute - the world's longest-running osteoporosis study of its kind which involved older men and women in Dubbo.
Prof Nguyen said before the calculator was developed, there was little insight into how best to assess the risk of breaking a bone through osteoporosis - and no way to get an accurate assessment of someone's individualised risk of fracture.
"Ten years ago we really didn't even understand what the key risk factors for fracture were," he said.
"We did have a definition of osteoporosis (a bone mineral density below a certain level) and we knew that low bone density was one risk factor for breaking a bone - but we had also discovered that most fractures happen in people who don't have low bone density, so we knew other risk factors must be at play. It was a puzzle."
To clarify the key risk factors for fracture, the team carried out sophisticated analyses on the Dubbo Study data.
They were able to determine the five key risk factors for fracture - a person's age, weight, bone mineral density, a history of previous fractures, and a history of falls.
In turn, they used this information to construct an algorithm of risk, which formed the basis of the calculator tool.
The researchers showed that the calculator could successfully predict a future bone break in 80 per cent of cases.
The Dubbo Study co-investigator Professor Jackie Center said the calculator was significant because it gives an individualised assessment of fracture risk.
"It is very important for helping a person to understand whether or not they would benefit from treatment," Professor Center said.
Ten years on the calculator has been fine tunes to the point where when an individual's genetic information is incorporated it can predict fracture risk with even greater accuracy.
And in 2016, a version of the calculator was used to underpin the Know Your Bones - a consumer-facing app that helps people to assess their own risk of fracture.
Members of the public can use the Know Your Bones site to assess their bone health. If you're concerned about fracture risk, it's important to consult your doctor or bone specialist. www.knowyourbones.org.au
