IT'S considered perhaps the hardest Melbourne Cup in recent history to find the winner, but what do the number crunchers say about finding the horse that will win Australia's great race?
They have an easy way to at least whittle down the 24 hopefuls to just a few who fit the profile of previous winners in the race's more than 150-year history.
Here are seven simple ways to find the winner of Tuesday's race after sifting through the facts and figures:
1. The numbers have it: Nos.4 and 12 have both had 11 wins. No.1 has 10, No.8 has eight and No.11 has had seven wins.
2. Barriers to victory: Horses in barriers nine to 12 have had five wins in the past 13 years. Barrier 18 has never produced the Melbourne Cup winner. And this year the race's $101 bolter Gallante has drawn the cursed alley.
3. The right age: Four and five-year-old horses have won the cup 91 times. Ten of the past 11 cups have been won by horses aged either four, five or six, Almandin the exception to the recent rule when scoring as a seven-year-old last year.
4. Sex matters: Overall, stallions or geldings have won it 67 times, including the past nine runnings.
5. Tip the scales: The average winning jockey weight during the past 10 years is 53.9 kilograms.
6. Colour your world: Check the jockey silks – black as a main colour has won 17 times and royal and navy blue has also won 17 times.
7. Shorten the odds: Odds of 10-1 have won 15 times and odds of 8-1 have won 13 times.
Compute all those stats and you're looking for a 10-1, four or five-year-old stallion wearing a number between 4 and 12, starting from barriers 9-12, carrying a 54-kilogram jockey wearing black or blue silks.
Think there's a horse that fits that exact criteria? Of course there isn't. So who do the numbers say are going to win Australia's biggest race?
There are a few that might go close to fitting the bill.
A couple really stand out using this criteria this year.
The Lloyd Williams-owned, Aidan O'Brien-trained Johannes Vermeer makes an appealing case and looks to have a lot going for him (five-year-old, No.7 saddlecloth, 54.5 kilograms, starting price $10 and predominantly navy blue colours).
He will be gunning to gift Williams a sixth Melbourne Cup and his genius Irish trainer, considered the best in the world, a first in the race that stops the nation.
Perhaps his biggest threat comes from the English raider Marmelo (five-year-old, No.5 saddlecloth, 55 kilograms and a starting price of $11 with blue as part of his colours).
No British-trained horse has won the Melbourne Cup, but trainer Hugh Morrison has snapped up Winx's jockey Hugh Bowman to ride his stayer which was an impressive sixth in the Caulfield Cup.
Another with a profile of a Melbourne Cup winner, which may not have the recent form to reflect it, is David Hayes, Ben Hayes and Tom Dabernig's Ventura Storm.
He's a five-year-old stallion which will carry the No.10 saddlecloth with 54 kilograms on his back and navy blue stripes on his colours. And you can back him to win the Cup at $35 with Sportsbet.
So wondering which horse to back at 3pm on Tuesday? You could do worse than including Johannes Vermeer, Humidor and Ventura Storm in your selections.
